A healthcare policy perspective on the 2024 election

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, healthcare leaders are keeping a close eye on how the political landscape might shape future policy. On Tuesday, the College of Healthcare Information Management Executives (CHIME) hosted the 2024 Election State of Play webinar featuring two expert speakers: Cassie Ballard, Director of Congressional Affairs at CHIME, and Stuart Chapman, Partner at Thorn Run Partners. Drawing from their extensive experience in healthcare policy and political strategy, Ballard and Chapman share what we can expect from this upcoming election.  

Abortion is a top of mind for voters

What makes this election unique when it comes to healthcare is that it is the first presidential election since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. Abortion is on the ballot in numerous states – but some voters are leaning toward candidates that might support federal protections of reproductive rights.  

“The economy seems to be the top issue among both Trump and Harris voters, but polling suggests that after the economy, Republicans care about immigration and crime next, whereas Democrats seem to place more importance on health care and reproductive health or abortion,” shared Ballard. 

Abortion in particular is one of Republicans’ biggest weaknesses in the polls, Ballard explained, and it’s a strength for Democrats.  

Senate races to watch

While the presidential race captures most of the attention, control of the Senate is also at stake – and will likely come down to a few key states; Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. West Virginia is widely expected to go to Republicans, but the election landscape in Montana and Ohio is a little more complicated. 

• Montana: Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Tim Sheehy  
  • Trump won Montana by 16 points in 2016, making this a challenging race for Tester. 

• Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Bernie Moreno  
  • Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016, but the race remains close. 

 “Tester can pull off [the win], but it would be a challenge,” said Ballard. Brown and Tester’s success might heavily depend on the split-ticket voters, who choose candidates from different political parties for various offices in the same election. 

 The last incumbent to win reelection on split-tickets, was Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) in 2020. 

 If Republicans gain control of the Senate, CHIME anticipates: 

• Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will lead the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee 

• Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) will lead the Finance Committee 

Currently, Bernie Sanders (I-VT) chairs the HELP Committee and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) chairs the Finance Committee.  

 “In terms of will this be good for CHIME priorities, I think Senator Cassidy being the health chair could be really good for cyber security. He is one of the co -leads of the Bipartisan Healthcare Cyber Working Group and just seems to really care about the issue,” shared Ballard. 

The Michigan Senate race is also drawing considerable attention as a potential toss-up, given Senator Stabenow’s retirement. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican, is challenging Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin for the open seat. While recent polls suggest Slotkin holds a slight lead of a few percentage points, the race remains closely watched.  

“However, Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994. So I think it’s pretty safe to say that Dems will hold that seat,” said Chapman. “I feel like that’s a pretty safe prediction.” 

House leadership changes

The House Energy and Commerce Committee (E&C) is set for a leadership change in the upcoming session. The current chair, Representative Kathy McMorris-Rogers (R-WA), has announced her retirement, and two Republican members have emerged as contenders to replace her: Rep. Bill Guthrie (R-KY) and Rep. Bob Latta (R-OH). Both bring their own experiences and priorities to the race, and the outcome could have substantial implications for the committee’s future direction and legislative agenda. 

Guthrie currently chairs the Health Subcommittee and earlier this year invited CHIME’s board chair, Scott MacLean, to testify before Congress on the Change Healthcare cyberattack. 

“I would say [Guthrie’s reelection] would be good for CHIME,” Ballard shared. “I don’t know as much about Rep. Latta (R-OH) in terms of where he is in health IT issues, but that’s certainly a race we are following. ”