What shortage? Study project surplus of healthcare workforce by 2028

Concerns over a growing workforce shortage in healthcare has loomed over healthcare execs since long before the COVID-19 pandemic, but a new report from Mercer says some states might not be that bad. Yes, they still project a shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers within the next 5 years, however the pending crisis will only impact some states and some healthcare occupations.  

 Using historical data up to 2023, researchers at Mercer employed advanced modeling techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for various healthcare occupations. The study identifies potential gaps between worker supply and demand and the uneven workforce distribution across states. By looking at both state and local markets, the study aims to show how different healthcare systems can tailor their workforce strategies to their specific market.  

Healthcare workforce projections 

Deficit is growing, but not in all states 

By 2028, the U.S. healthcare system is projected to face a nationwide shortage of 100,000 workers. However, this deficit isn’t uniform across the country. Populous states like California, Texas, and Pennsylvania are expected to have labor surpluses, with California leading at over 16,500 excess workers. In contrast, New York faces a severe shortage of more than 61,000 healthcare workers, with New Jersey not far behind at nearly 18,000.   

Most wanted: Nursing Assistants (NAs)

The most in-demand healthcare workers will be nursing assistants, with an estimated deficit of over 73,000. According to projections, only 13 states will meet or exceed expected demand. Currently, nursing assistants make up nearly 8% of the clinical healthcare workforce and the third most employed healthcare occupation in the U.S.  

In contrast, physicians are not projected to face large shortages overall, though the picture differs for different states and between specialist and primary care roles.  

Most states will have a surplus of registered nurses (RNs) 

Nationally, a surplus of around 30,000 RNs is expected by 2028 in the U.S., but Northeastern and Southern states are projected to face critical shortages. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut will face an estimated shortage of 16,000 RNs.  

Money matters 

Recognizing the differences in compensation across occupations and regions is essential for addressing potential shortages. If financial incentives change, so might these projections. To attract and retain increasingly scarce talent, employers must remain competitive with their pay offerings. 

For instance, despite similar costs of living, nursing assistants in Kansas earned over $2,000 more annually than their counterparts in neighboring Oklahoma in 2022. With Oklahoma projecting a shortage of over 700 NAs by 2028 and Kansas expecting a surplus of 600, this pay disparity could exacerbate Oklahoma’s shortage as workers seek higher wages across state lines. 

Strategies for Healthcare Systems 

 To navigate these complex workforce challenges, the reports suggest that healthcare systems must adopt proactive, data-driven strategies:  

1. Implement comprehensive workforce planning based on projected local labor market conditions.
2. Strengthen talent pipelines through partnerships with educational institutions and internal training programs.
3. Focus on retention and employee well-being to combat burnout and reduce attrition.
4. Explore innovative approaches to reduce demand, such as leveraging technology for self-check-ins and redesigning jobs to eliminate inefficiencies.

As we approach 2028, the ability of healthcare systems to navigate these workforce challenges will be crucial. By understanding the specific dynamics of their local labor markets, investing in their workforce, and innovating in how they deliver care, healthcare leaders can turn this looming crisis into an opportunity for positive transformation. The health of the nation depends on their success.